From Spooky to Sold Out: What Actually Moves During Halloween

Halloween by the Numbers: More Than Just Candy Corn

Traditionally considered a niche holiday, Halloween has grown into a cultural and commercial phenomenon. Today’s Halloween shopper is diverse – parents buying themed costumes, millennials decorating apartments for parties, pet owners dressing up their dogs, and Gen Z TikTokers driving viral beauty trends.

Costumes still command attention – 71 % of consumers plan to buy one, with spending on costume-related products expected to hit $4.3 billion. Meanwhile, decorations (both indoor and outdoor) are not far behind: 78 % of shoppers intend to purchase décor, with total expenditures forecast around $4.2 billion. Candy remains an anchor of the season, with estimated spending of $3.9 billion.

Beyond these core categories, growth is emerging across beauty and makeup (fueled by DIY costume trends), pet costumes, and seasonal snacks. Pet costumes alone are expected to contribute $860 million as 23 % of consumers plan to dress up their animals.

What this tells us is that Halloween is no longer a single-category holiday – it’s an ecosystem of related spend. Costumes, décor, and candy together make up the bulk of sales, but adjacent categories (beauty, pet, snack/food tie-ins) are climbing rapidly. For retailers, this means the margin for advantage lies not just in stocking the staples but in anticipating, bundling, and curating peripheral demand.

The Rise of the Unexpected Halloween Bestsellers

Beyond the obvious, there’s a surprising array of categories that surge in October:

• Smart home gadgets (e.g., lighting and projectors for yard displays)
• Limited-edition fall snacks and beverages (pumpkin spice everything)
• Makeup kits and beauty tools (for both glam and ghoulish looks)
• Craft supplies (driven by DIYers and social media trends)

Retailers who’ve mined their POS, ecommerce, and social listening data know these trends aren’t flukes – they’re the result of evolving consumer behavior and micro-seasons driven by content platforms and shifting lifestyles.

AI Makes the Difference Between Sold Out and Sold Through

During seasonal peaks like Halloween, even small mistakes in forecasting can lead to big losses: either through missed sales from stockouts, or through margin erosion from heavy discounting. Advanced AI‑driven forecasting is proving to be a key differentiator, enabling retailers to stay ahead of demand, reduce waste, and maximize revenue.

That’s where AI and advanced analytics come in.

• Predict demand at SKU, store, and regional level
  AI models forecast demand with precision, reducing overstock and stockouts by tailoring supply to specific locations and channels.
• Identify trends early from real-time signals
  By analyzing search data, social media activity, and even weather patterns, AI detects emerging trends before they impact sales.
• Personalize promotions by shopper persona
  Machine learning segments customers by behavior and preferences, enabling targeted offers that boost conversion and loyalty.
• Balance inventory and fulfillment across channels
  AI optimizes product allocation and fulfillment routing, ensuring availability while minimizing logistics costs and delivery times.

Timing the Treats: Shopper Behavior Through October

When it comes to Halloween, timing is everything – and shopper behavior throughout the season is far from uniform. Our analysis reveals three distinct phases that each require tailored retail strategies:

• Early Birds (Mid-September to Early October)
  These shoppers plan ahead and tend to spend more on home and yard décor, DIY projects, and themed items that create a seasonal atmosphere. They’re also more likely to browse online, looking for inspiration and ideas before committing to a purchase. Retailers can engage them early with lookbooks, bundled décor sets, and loyalty-based pre-sale access.
• Peak Shoppers (October 5–20)
  This is the busiest phase, with customers actively purchasing costumes, party supplies, beauty products, and themed snacks. They’re influenced by social media trends and often shop both in-store and online. Strategic promotions, limited-time drops, and trend-driven merchandising can help capture peak-season wallet share.
• Last-Minute Buyers (October 25–31)
  These shoppers are focused on convenience, typically shopping for candy, quick costumes, and last-minute add-ons. They’re highly responsive to urgency-based messaging (“last chance,” “get it by Halloween”) and are more likely to opt for same-day pickup or express shipping. Store-level stock visibility and local targeting are critical during this window.

Retailers that segment these personas and tailor marketing, pricing, and inventory strategies accordingly see better conversion and reduced markdown pressure. AI plays a pivotal role here-detecting shifting demand patterns, predicting persona behavior in real time, and triggering personalized content across channels to meet customers where they are in their shopping journey.

Powering Retail Readiness Through AI and Data

To succeed during high-stakes seasonal events like Halloween, retailers must shift from reactive tactics to proactive strategies – and that requires more than guesswork.

Modern retail leaders are using AI and advanced data analytics to:

• Forecast and respond to demand surges with greater precision
  AI enables real-time, SKU-level forecasting based on diverse data inputs-minimizing stockouts and overstock across regions and channels.
• Personalize at scale across both digital and in-store experiences
  Data-driven segmentation allows retailers to deliver tailored offers, content, and recommendations that resonate with individual shopper behavior.
• Create seamless customer journeys, from discovery to checkout to fulfillment
  AI helps unify online and offline touchpoints, ensuring smooth transitions across browsing, purchasing, and post-purchase experiences.
• Reduce excess inventory and waste, while maximizing sell-through and margins
  Smarter inventory planning aligns supply with actual demand, improving profitability while reducing markdowns and unsold stock.

In a highly competitive and time-sensitive market, it’s no longer enough to simply stock seasonal products and hope for the best. Winning retailers are using real-time intelligence to anticipate shopper needs, respond dynamically, and deliver the right product to the right customer at the right time.

Conclusion: No Tricks, Just Smarter Retail

Halloween presents a high-impact seasonal opportunity to drive revenue, build brand loyalty, and stand out in a crowded market. By leveraging AI, data, and digital intelligence to guide decision-making, retailers can turn this busy period from a logistical challenge into a smoothly executed, high-performing retail event. Whether it’s forecasting demand at the SKU level, spotting fast-moving trends, or personalizing promotions across channels, smarter strategies consistently deliver stronger results.

If you’re looking to turn seasonal chaos into structured success, Rysun’s AI-powered retail solutions are designed to help you do exactly that – not just reacting to demand, but predicting and shaping it. We partner with retail teams to unlock deeper insights, sharper execution, and measurable business outcomes.

Let’s make your next Halloween season a sell-out – not a stockout.